Sustainable Infrastructure Opportunities in India
Let’s start by looking at the first two words of the topic. ‘Sustainable’ could mean different things to different people and contexts. For the ‘sustainable infrastructure’, the following four dimensions would capture the essence of it.
Economic Sustainability refers to practices that support long-term growth in economic, financial, and other policy attributes such as jobs, etc.
Social Sustainability refers to the social issues related to our wellbeing and includes aspects like poverty, healthcare, education, housing, employment, social/community impact, human rights, labor rights, cultural preservation, etc. As I always say if you are not relevant to improve society on these aspects then society is going to make you not relevant to them. Tata’s, over the last 150 years, about 2/3rd of the dividends are going to charity.
Institutional Sustainability: is about consistently achieving the core institutional objectives. And finding ways to improve it. The way to ensure that is through strategy, governance, systemic efficiency, management structure and accountability, capacity building, etc.
Environmental Sustainability is the responsibility to conserve natural resources, climate and basically make sure that we preserve our planet. So, it’s something that we are not doing. :-)
Human brains are well-tuned to address most of the first 3. It’s the 4th one that we are not yet putting our minds to. So it makes sense for me to concentrate on that one. It’s also because, by ignoring it, we have initiated a potentially catastrophic climate change which is endangering our and our planet’s very survival.
This is what climate change looks like. This starving polar bear was spotted by National Geographic photographer Paul Nicklen on Somerset Island.
The impacts of climate change are hitting closer and closer to home. From the most named storms (30, as of November 18) of any Atlantic hurricane season on record to an unprecedented western wildfire season—including the largest Colorado and California wildfires by area in each state’s history—2020 was a year of extreme weather events in the United States.
Climate change is already having a significant impact on ecosystems, economies, and communities. Rising average temperatures do not simply mean balmier winters. Some regions will experience more extreme heat while others may cool slightly. Flooding, drought, and intense summer heat could result. Violent storms and other extreme weather events could also result from the increased energy stored in our warming atmosphere.
The effect of climate change is going to be really really bad. But in order to control and reverse them, we first need to understand the problem better. I would draw on Bill Gates's thoughts which summarised the whole environmental sustainability (and climate change) in two numbers:
51 billion and 0.
The world adds around 51 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere every year. And zero is what that number should become if we want to stop global warming. (It’s not 25, it’s not 10 but zero. A 50 percent drop in emissions wouldn’t stop the rise in temperature; it would only slow things down, somewhat postponing but not preventing a climate catastrophe.) That’s when we will avoid the worst effects of climate change. And the worst effects are potentially fatal for this planet. So we are talking about the survival of the planet here.
The reason I am telling you this is that sooner than later the sense of urgency would find its way into the policy-making and will affect every business/activity we do. And I have no doubt that sustainability would then be everyone’s business. And those concentrating on it now will rip reach benefits. Well, I am also going to talk to you about the short-term opportunities, because without the short-term survival of our businesses the economic sustainability of the business is not attainable. But before I got there, let me talk about the 51 billion for a while, though.
The important greenhouse gas CO2 is warming the planet, and the equation on total CO2 emitted is a simple one:
CO2 = S * C
Where, S is the source of CO2 (like our cars, or energy generation). C is the amount of CO2 released per unit use of that service. That is how much CO2 per unit is released when we drive a car, or when we produce cement or steel, or electricity.
For CO2 to be zero we either need to seek zero services or we need to find a way to reduce the carbon released per unit to zero. Since the former is not possible, the big opportunity for all of us is in reducing the CO2 footprint of each of these services to zero.
Let’s look at the S more closely - a breakdown of all the human activities that produce greenhouse gases. Getting to zero means zeroing out every one of these categories:
.What do you think is the biggest source of CO2? Here are the sources of greenhouse gases / CO2:
How much greenhouse gas is emitted by the things we do?
Transport (planes, trucks, cargo ships): 16%
Plants & Animals: 19%
Electricity: 27%
Infrastructure (cement, steel, plastic): 31%
Air conditioning (heating, cooling, refrigeration): 7%
Now, this was a big surprise to me when I first looked at it. Electricity production constitutes only 27%. So all the clean energy that we talk about for the ‘sustainability discussion, is not going to be enough for climate change. ‘ You see the infrastructure building creates the most amount of greenhouse gases. That’s the challenge and that’s also the huge opportunity.
The world will have to invest $90 trillion in sustainable infrastructure by 2030. For example, as the big shift towards urbanization happens, the township development will be an important aspect of it. In fact, we do a big of township development.
Sustainable Township Development
We are setting our vision to the following for net-zero township for sustainable urban infrastructure. We have a three-pronged approach to sustainability – social, economic, and environmental.
Sustainable infrastructure includes a combination of local architectural techniques and modern building technologies. Design for cooling and the use of prevailing winds are key features. We are a tropical country and we intend to include smart shading by high-performance façades, narrow streets for shade and wind channeling, and site orientation to hone the capture of solar radiation, as well as a solar photovoltaic power plant with an installed capacity to serve all needs of the township.
Planned transport infrastructure includes various low-carbon systems: a metro line, light rail, cycle routes, and a public electric bus network. Eventually a personal rapid transit system for the future.
The future will be to move away from the traditional ‘take-make-use-dispose’ model and towards reusing and repurposing waste. In keeping with the strategy of diverting waste from landfills, the sustainable township will utilize waste reduction measures and reuse of waste (including construction waste) wherever possible, and recycling, composting, and waste to energy schemes are envisaged. New methods of water management are also being explored to help manage the water balance in a sustainable way, such as the reuse of wastewater for irrigation (to create dense urban forests), more efficient sprinkling and landscaping systems, smart consumption arrangements, and hot water provision via thermal receptors.
The development of sustainable infrastructure will require a combination of sustained support and participation at the governmental level, commitment to public and private investment, and a legal and regulatory framework that permits growth whilst governing the social, economic, and environmental standards that are the basis of sustainability. Burgeoning urban growth will require proper planning, integration of the interests of diverse stakeholders, and a focus on sustainable building materials and practices. It will also require better collection, use, and analysis of big data.
The digital plays an important role as well. We are also using Geospatial Technology (GIS & GPS) and Building Information Modelling (BIM). These technologies have been critical in planning and designing projects. Like every other successful assignment, planning plays a key role in building sustainable infrastructure. Further, we use real-time monitoring of water, energy, and air. E.g. smart metering to remote monitor and remote-control use of water and HVAC for building efficiency.
Let’s not forget social sustainability. We are very keen on the labor welfare and safety aspects. The aim is to have zero safety incidences. So wearables, facial recognition, remote video monitoring, computer vision, etc. are all of interest to us.
India: Infrastructure
The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) is a group of social and economic infrastructure projects in India by 2025 with an initial sanctioned amount of US$1.4 trillion. In May 2020, they submitted the final report to the Finance Minister. I recommend you read the report to get an overview. Important recommendations and observations made:
Investment needed: US$1.4 trillion over the five years (2020-2025) to build infrastructure projects and drive economic growth.
Energy, roads, railways, and urban projects are estimated to account for the bulk of projects (around 70%).
This report emphasizes the need for sustainability and provides statistics on all aspects of infra development goals. E.g. a snapshot below of the power sector KPI framework. This shall provide a good overview of any player trying to explore sustainable infrastructure development.
(Source: Ministry of Power, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy )
Sample data/policies in the report for sustainability-related discussions:
The vital challenge of freshwater. Already, 20% of the population lacks clean drinking water and 40% lacks basic sanitation. (We have taken a step towards addressing the issue through digital technology. We have begun with real-time remote monitoring and control of the quantity, quality and periodicity of the water in rural India. We see this as a multi-billion dollar opportunity. Remember, Jal Jeevan Mission is gearing up to spend USD 50 billion over the next few years for putting water connection in every household in the country.)
By 2030, it is estimated that five states in India – Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab will have more than 50% urbanisation. Also, the number of metropolitan cities in India are estimated to increase from 46 as per Census 2011 to 68 in 2030. (Appreciating this we are looking to build sustainable townships - a section in the latter part of the blog.)
Increasingly, therefore, the Indian government is looking to the private sector as a partner.
An increase in natural disasters or unpredictable events will test the resilience of infrastructure, not just in terms of reconstruction, but also in terms of supply chain disruptions
New technologies are already part of infrastructure thinking. Innovations, such as the Internet of Things, will make infrastructure more efficient and sustainable.
At a macro level, physical infrastructure underpins the achievement of all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Meanwhile, recent disasters indicate that up to 66% of total public sector losses in weather- and climate-related extreme events are related to infrastructure damage. There is a clear need for ensuring that all new and existing infrastructure systems are climate- and disaster-resilient.
Strategic Goals
Design, deliver and maintain public infrastructure projects to meet efficiency, equity and inclusiveness goals
Design, construct and maintain public infrastructure to meet disaster resilience goals
Benchmark infrastructure performance to global best practices and standards.
Leverage technology to enhance service standards, efficiency and safety.
These goals would eventually contribute to the SDG 2030. agenda to which India is a signatory.
The goverment has explicitly identified the opportinty in National Infrastructure Pipeline on the India Investment Grid website https://indiainvestmentgrid.gov.in/. Here’s a screenshot of the website …
Snapshot of oppotunities in sustaiable infrastructure development in India on India Investment Grid website - https://indiainvestmentgrid.gov.in/
Infrastructure building also has a tremendous carbon footprint which will eventually destroy our planet.
Infrastructure has created harmful social and environmental impacts, increase vulnerability to natural disasters and leave an unsustainable burden of debt. India faces a fundamental dilemma. Over recent decades the country has achieved tremendous economic growth that has lifted millions of its people out of poverty and raised living standards, but in many places, the way land is being used to generate this growth is unsustainable. United Nations has established 17 Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDG). Infrastructure either directly or indirectly impacts almost all of them.
Image 1: The direct and indirect roles of infrastructure in influencing the targets of the SDGs. a–f, Each goal is subdivided according to the number of targets, and each target has been assessed to establish direct or indirect influences from the provision of the five categories of infrastructure considered in this analysis: energy (a), water (b), solid waste (c), transport (d) and digital communications. All infrastructure shows the combined influence on SDGs and targets of the five infrastructure sectors: here a target is included if it can be influenced by one or more of the five infrastructure sectors; in cases in which a target is both directly and indirectly influenced by different infrastructure systems, it is classified as direct.
Image 2: SDG infrastructure interdependencies. a, Counts of the number of different infrastructure sectors that influence the SDG targets (where 5 is the maximum) that are identified as being able to influence different targets of the SDGs. b, Counts of the number of interdependencies, which are identified when more than one sector can influence a target. Interdependencies are classified as unique when different sectors influence a target in a different way (top right) and shared when different sectors influence a target in the same way (bottom left).
Sustainability
That brings us to understand what do we mean by sustainability.
The concept of sustainable infrastructure refers to equipment and systems that are designed to meet the population's essential service needs based on all-round sustainable principles. This means the infrastructure is environmentally friendly from end to end, and that includes economic, financial, social and institutional factors. With urban areas growing exponentially, especially in emerging countries like India, sustainable infrastructure is showing its worth as a more efficient, productive and environmentally friendly option. Furthermore, according to the World Bank, these facilities prove more profitable as they make for more reliable services and greater resilience to extreme weather events, as well as lessening the impact of natural threats to people and the economy.
COVID Impact
This crisis has demonstrated that the Indian government and citizens are capable of strong action in the face of an overarching challenge. As India looks to shore up its economy, it is worth reflecting on the systemic actions that are planed to shift towards a more sustainable and resilient economy. The government is gearing up to invest in sustainable infrastructure. Infrastructure investments are an effective way of boosting economic activity and creating jobs. But what kind of infrastructure should be built? Data from the 2008-09 financial crisis shows that South Korea, which directed 80% of its stimulus towards green measures, rebounded faster than other economies in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In the recovery package developed by the United States in response to the Great Recession about a decade ago, investments in clean energy and public transport created more jobs than traditional investments.
Best Practices: Big-impact solutions
Beef
Three-quarters of deforestation is driven by agriculture. Beef production is responsible for 41% of deforestation; palm oil and soybeans account for another 18%; and logging for paper and wood across the tropics, another 13%.
In 2011, a lone academic, Pat Brown, tried to eliminate all animal husbandry given its use of 30–50% of the planet’s land area and its horrendous greenhouse gas (GHG) and water footprint. Many laughed at the idea that a plant protein, even with a roughly 90% lower GHG and water footprint, could be as tasty to non-vegetarians as beef. A decade later, this is widely accepted and proven in taste tests. Beef may be slowly on its way out, starting with the environmentally-conscious millennial generation because they don’t have to give up any “taste” to be so conscientious. Beef and animal products are large GHG emitters and will slowly be replaced by products like Impossible Foods.
The side story of Impossible Foods: Pat Brown, a former Stanford biochemistry professor, embarked on a mission to transform the food industry by founding Impossible Foods in 2011, driven by his passion for sustainability and reducing the environmental impact of animal agriculture. Fueled by the alarming fact that animal husbandry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation, Brown sought to create a viable, plant-based alternative to meat that could satisfy meat lovers.
Brown's journey began with extensive research into the molecular basis of meat flavor and texture, identifying heme, an iron-containing molecule in blood, as a key factor in replicating the taste of meat. Leveraging his scientific expertise, Brown and his team engineered yeast to produce heme through fermentation, which became the cornerstone ingredient in Impossible Foods' products, imparting a meat-like flavor and appearance.
The first breakthrough product, the Impossible Burger, debuted in 2016, offering a plant-based burger that sizzled, smelled, and tasted like ground beef, even "bleeding" like a real burger due to the heme. The Impossible Burger's launch was strategic; initially targeting high-end restaurants and renowned chefs to build credibility and buzz around the product's taste and quality, challenging the stigma around plant-based meats.
Brown's vision went beyond just creating a meat alternative; he aimed to revolutionize the food system by making his products more sustainable, nutritious, and affordable than animal-derived meats. Impossible Foods expanded its product line, introducing plant-based pork and sausage and continually innovating to improve taste, texture, and nutritional content.
Pat Brown's leadership and Impossible Foods' success attracted significant investments, enabling research and development, scaling up production, and expanding globally. Through Pat Brown's journey with Impossible Foods, he has not only changed perceptions of plant-based meat but also significantly impacted the environment by providing a more sustainable, lower-carbon footprint alternative to traditional animal farming.
Cement
Fortera’s (formerly Calera) cement can reduce cement’s carbon footprint by 60% with a path to 100% (with a switch to electric kilns, something they do because of their lower calcining temperature). But more importantly, this lower carbon cement is actually cheaper to produce in today’s cement factories because it captures the pollutant CO2 and turns it into a valuable product as carbonates, hence lowering the cost of production for a ton of cement. And it can be used as both cementitious materials or as cement as it can match the properties and costs of today’s cement. On the same front of building materials, there are entrepreneurs experimenting with photopolymers as substitutes for cement because they have 7x the strength of cement and hence use far less material and when combined with 3D printed construction technologies can dramatically reduce materials tonnage in construction. And others making residential space 2x more efficient making 300square foot apartments feasible.
Grid Storage
Long-term grid storage is needed to make solar and wind broadly scalable. Through Breakthrough Energy Ventures we see some high-risk efforts that have the potential to bear fruit.
HVAC
This is #1 on the Drawdown list of opportunities and a hard area. For at least one approach that may hold promise, we likely need dramatically better thermoelectrics. Maybe AI approaches combined with quantum computing for radical materials design will help design better thermoelectrics, thermionics, or something completely new. But efficiency needs to be improved dramatically.
Fertilizer
Fertilizer needs some addressing. Cheap clean energy may solve this problem; soil microbes to produce nitrogen are also being attempted
Desalination
There is a thermodynamics limit to energy efficiency for desalinating saltwater but cheap renewable energy could solve this problem.
Steel
Clever technologies to remove oxygen bound to the iron is needed. What seems more promising is using 90% less steel by having each pound of steel go 10x further in cars (120k miles per year instead of today’s 12k miles) or need 90% less steel through cars that don’t crash or new materials like stronger polymers for construction or cheaper composites.
Carbon Sequestration
Including direct air, capture is being worked on and it is too early to exercise judgment on feasibility at less than $30–50/ton capture price. Elon Musk is donating. $100M for Gigaton Scale Carbon Removal competition. The winner will be given $50 million.
Nuclear Power
Nuclear fusion and fission stand out as powerful alternatives to traditional electricity production methods, primarily due to their efficiency, low carbon emissions, and surprisingly, their safety record in terms of lives lost per unit of electricity produced. Fission, the process of splitting atomic nuclei, is a mature technology that has been powering homes and businesses for decades. It offers a consistent and reliable energy supply, unlike intermittent renewables such as solar and wind. Fission's biggest advantage over fossil fuels is its minimal greenhouse gas emissions during operation, making it a crucial player in efforts to combat climate change. Meanwhile, nuclear fusion, which involves fusing atomic nuclei, remains in the experimental phase but holds immense promise. Fusion could potentially provide a nearly unlimited source of energy, using water and other abundant materials as fuel, and produce little to no long-lived radioactive waste.
Despite public perception, the safety record of nuclear energy, particularly when considering the number of lives lost per unit of electricity produced, is comparatively better than most traditional energy sources. Fission, while associated with high-profile accidents like Chornobyl and Fukushima, has seen significant advancements in reactor safety and design. These improvements have drastically reduced the likelihood of such incidents. Furthermore, nuclear energy, both fission and fusion, does not contribute to air pollution, which is responsible for millions of premature deaths annually due to the burning of fossil fuels. Fusion, expected to be inherently safer than fission, does not carry the risk of meltdown and produces lower levels of radioactive materials. Its development is guided by the principle of intrinsic safety, where any deviation from normal operating conditions naturally leads to a shutdown of the reaction.
One of the most well-funded startups in nuclear fusion is Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a spin-off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. CFS has attracted significant investment for its ambitious goal of making fusion energy a reality. Their approach revolves around developing high-temperature superconducting magnets to create the powerful magnetic fields required to contain the fusion reaction. This technological innovation aims to overcome one of the biggest challenges in fusion energy - achieving a net positive energy output. CFS's progress and potential success in realizing commercial fusion power would mark a monumental shift in global energy production, heralding a future of abundant, safe, and clean energy.
One of the most well-funded startups in the area of nuclear fission is TerraPower, founded by Bill Gates. TerraPower aims to develop and commercialize new and improved nuclear technologies. One of their key projects is the development of the traveling wave reactor (TWR), which promises to be safer and more efficient than traditional nuclear reactors. This innovative design allows for depleted uranium as fuel, which is more abundant and less expensive than the enriched uranium used in conventional reactors. TerraPower has attracted significant investment and attention, underscoring the growing interest in advanced nuclear technologies as a sustainable energy solution. Their work represents an essential step in modernizing nuclear fission, potentially redefining its role in global energy production.
Other well-funded startups in this space are:
General Fusion: Established in 2002, General Fusion is another prominent name in the nuclear energy sector, focusing on developing fusion-based energy solutions.
NuScale Power: Founded in 2007, NuScale Power specializes in small modular reactors and has recently gone public.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems: This Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company achieved the biggest single fusion investment, raising over $1.8 billion in a funding round led by Tiger Global, with additional investments from figures like Bill Gates and Marc Benioff's Time Ventures.
Helion Energy, a significant player in the field of nuclear fusion technology, was founded in 2013 by David Kirtley, John Slough, Chris Pihl, and George Votroubek. The founding team had a notable start, winning the 2013 National Cleantech Open Energy Generation competition and the 2014 ARPA-E Future Energy Startup competition and being part of the 2014 Y Combinator program. Additionally, they were awarded a 2015 ARPA-E ALPHA contract for their work on "Staged Magnetic Compression of FRC Targets to Fusion Conditions". As of November 2021, Helion had raised a significant amount of venture capital, totaling $570 million, with substantial backing from influential investors. This includes contributions from Y Combinator, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman. A significant portion of this funding, $500 million, came from a round announced in November 2021, including a substantial investment from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, marking his most significant single investment. Helion Energy's advancements in fusion technology are encapsulated in their newest prototype, Polaris, which incorporates regenerative energy technology. The company broke ground in Everett, Washington, to build a generator, expected to power up to 40,000 homes. The demonstration of this technology is targeted for 2024. If successful, the additional $1.7 billion in follow-on investments will be utilized to develop a commercial system. This ambitious endeavor reflects Helion Energy's commitment to establishing nuclear fusion as a practical, zero-carbon solution for power generation.
